10 Best Books on Risk


Books, Environment, Psychology, Risk

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein Long-Term Capital Management’s demise comes from a mix of how their perfect models quantify risks in an uncertain world, a sense of infallibility, 30 to 1 leverage, illiquid trades, and basic greed. It is like betting on the outcome of a […]

What is Value Investing?


Free Cash Flow, Get started, Process, Risk

What is value investing? It is to buy a business for less than what it’s worth. We can break this into three parts. Buy a business Buying a stock is the same as owning a fraction of the underlying business. If you buy a share of Apple (AAPL), you own the business that produces things […]

How to Think About Price


Market, Price, Psychology, Risk

Tesla at $1,000 per share. Topglove, one of the largest glove manufacturers, is trading at MYR$17 per share, up 360% so far this year due to COVID19. Afterpay, Australia’s leading buy now pay later, has a $15 billion market capitalization after a 560% rally since March. What do they tell you? Will they keep going […]

Hunting Ground


Circle of Competence, Environment, Opportunity Cost, Risk, Strategy

Hunting Groundhʌntɪŋ ɡraʊnd/nouna place likely to be a fruitful source of something desired or sought. Imagine if you’re going on a fishing trip, what do you need? You need a location, fishing rods, reels, lures, etc. That’s the plan. But a plan doesn’t equal success. You might catch some fish if you’re lucky, but you’re […]

First, Kill Your Ideas


Decision Making, Investment Process, Randomness, Risk

“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman Investing is part art, part science. There’s no single formula for success as the future is uncertain, probabilistic, and constantly changing (our forecast changes the outcome). All of which rely on our […]