First, Kill Your Ideas

Decision Making, Investment Process, Randomness, Risk

“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman Investing is part art, part science. There’s no single formula for success as the future is uncertain, probabilistic, and constantly changing (our forecast changes the outcome). All of which rely on our […]

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A Million Dollars Lesson

Investment Process, Luck, Market, Psychology, Risk, Strategy

In investing, knowing what not to do is more important than knowing what to do. But since we don’t have all the time in the world to make all the possible mistakes to figure out what not to do, the best way is to learn from other’s mistakes.  In What I Learned Losing A Million […]

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Why Negative Thinking Makes You A Better Investor

Decision Making, Investment Process, Psychology, Risk

What does going into space and investing in the stock market have in common? Both activities engaged in a high risk, high uncertainty environment. Whereas astronauts have to deal with the risk of 526,000 gallons of propellant blowing up beside them during takeoff or the shuttle disintegrating during re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere at 7.8 km […]

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15 Investing Lessons

Circle of Competence, Decision Making, Expected Value, Filter, Investment Process, Opportunity Cost, Portfolio, Probability, Psychology, Risk

1. Experience may not be a good teacher Most elderly who died in Hurricane Katrina dies not because of their health, but because of confidence and denial. They have survived several hurricanes over their lifetime, so they believe Hurricane Katrina is no exception. Experience can create a close attitude that prevents us from seeing things […]

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Wanna Bet?


Decision Making, Investment Process, Luck, Probability, Psychology

Our intuition works like this:  Decision → Outcome (feedback) → Better Decision You burn your hand (outcome) after touching a hot stove (decision) or place your feet on the brake (decision) slows down the car (outcome), we use outcomes as feedback to change our actions and make better future decisions. But there’s a caveat.  In […]

March 5, 2020

Best Books I Read Last Year


Books, Process, Psychology, Randomness, Second Order Effect

Books that should be read more than once. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder While Taleb’s previous two books—Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan—focused on overconfidence and underestimation of risk, Antifragile is the antidote on how we can reduce fragility and in the process, gain from disorder and randomness. Antifragile provides a view that […]

February 23, 2020