10 Best Books on Risk

Books, Environment, Psychology, Risk

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein Long-Term Capital Management’s demise comes from a mix of how their perfect models quantify risks in an uncertain world, a sense of infallibility, 30 to 1 leverage, illiquid trades, and basic greed. It is like betting on the outcome of a […]

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What is Value Investing?

Free Cash Flow, Get started, Process, Risk

What is value investing? It is to buy a business for less than what it’s worth. We can break this into three parts. Buy a business Buying a stock is the same as owning a fraction of the underlying business. If you buy a share of Apple (AAPL), you own the business that produces things […]

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Why Investors Blow Up (and How To Avoid That)

Decision Making, Margin of Safety, Psychology, Risk, Second Order Effect

Overshoot Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital described the market as a pendulum that rarely stays in the middle “The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum “on average,” it actually spends very little of its time there. […]

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How to Think About Price

Market, Price, Psychology, Risk

Tesla at $1,000 per share. Topglove, one of the largest glove manufacturers, is trading at MYR$17 per share, up 360% so far this year due to COVID19. Afterpay, Australia’s leading buy now pay later, has a $15 billion market capitalization after a 560% rally since March. What do they tell you? Will they keep going […]

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10 Best Books on Risk


Books, Environment, Psychology, Risk

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein Long-Term Capital Management’s demise comes from a mix of how their perfect models quantify risks in an uncertain world, a sense of infallibility, 30 to 1 leverage, illiquid trades, and basic greed. It is like betting on the outcome of a […]

What Should You Buy?


Circle of Competence, Process, Psychology

I think it is easier to figure out what not to buy than what to buy. If we can weed out the stocks to avoid, we’ll be a step closer to figure out what to buy. What are some stocks you should avoid? Generally, hot stocks that everyone is talking about. Some are ‘momentum’ stocks […]

8 Books on Worldly Wisdom


Books, Environment, History, Mental Models

How do we attain wisdom? It starts with knowledge. What kind of knowledge should we acquire? Peter Kaufman’s three buckets of knowledge can guide us. “Every statistician knows that a large, relevant sample size is their best friend. What are the three largest, most relevant sample sizes for identifying universal principles? Bucket number one is […]

What is Value Investing?


Free Cash Flow, Get started, Process, Risk

What is value investing? It is to buy a business for less than what it’s worth. We can break this into three parts. Buy a business Buying a stock is the same as owning a fraction of the underlying business. If you buy a share of Apple (AAPL), you own the business that produces things […]

How to Think About Price


Market, Price, Psychology, Risk

Tesla at $1,000 per share. Topglove, one of the largest glove manufacturers, is trading at MYR$17 per share, up 360% so far this year due to COVID19. Afterpay, Australia’s leading buy now pay later, has a $15 billion market capitalization after a 560% rally since March. What do they tell you? Will they keep going […]