First, Kill Your Ideas

Decision Making, Investment Process, Randomness, Risk

“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman Investing is part art, part science. There’s no single formula for success as the future is uncertain, probabilistic, and constantly changing (our forecast changes the outcome). All of which rely on our […]

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A Million Dollars Lesson

Investment Process, Luck, Market, Psychology, Risk, Strategy

In investing, knowing what not to do is more important than knowing what to do. But since we don’t have all the time in the world to make all the possible mistakes to figure out what not to do, the best way is to learn from other’s mistakes.  In What I Learned Losing A Million […]

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Why Negative Thinking Makes You A Better Investor

Decision Making, Investment Process, Psychology, Risk

What does going into space and investing in the stock market have in common? Both activities engaged in a high risk, high uncertainty environment. Whereas astronauts have to deal with the risk of 526,000 gallons of propellant blowing up beside them during takeoff or the shuttle disintegrating during re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere at 7.8 km […]

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15 Investing Lessons

Circle of Competence, Decision Making, Expected Value, Filter, Investment Process, Opportunity Cost, Portfolio, Probability, Psychology, Risk

1. Experience may not be a good teacher Most elderly who died in Hurricane Katrina dies not because of their health, but because of confidence and denial. They have survived several hurricanes over their lifetime, so they believe Hurricane Katrina is no exception. Experience can create a close attitude that prevents us from seeing things […]

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First, Kill Your Ideas


Decision Making, Investment Process, Randomness, Risk

“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman Investing is part art, part science. There’s no single formula for success as the future is uncertain, probabilistic, and constantly changing (our forecast changes the outcome). All of which rely on our […]

October 31, 2019

Find Your Edge


Analysis, Circle of Competence, Contrarian, Independent thinking, Investment Process

In my previous post, I wrote that to achieve outperformance or above-average returns, your investment process has to be ‘unconventional’ compared to the majority. And that can only be achieved through originality, independent or contrarian thinking, and making connections from disparate information.  Bill Miller, the former Legg Mason portfolio manager, emphasizes the importance of making […]

September 15, 2019

Scale Economies


Analysis, Moat, Scale Economies, Strategy

Scale economies is one of the seven moats of quality companies.  Scale economies mean the fixed cost per unit falls as volume increases. Fixed cost is indivisible. And indivisibilities are more likely when an activity is capital intensive. The 3 main sources where scale arises are distribution, manufacturing and niche market.  A dense distribution network […]

September 2, 2019