Why Investors Blow Up (and How To Avoid That)

Decision Making, Margin of Safety, Psychology, Risk, Second Order Effect

Overshoot Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital described the market as a pendulum that rarely stays in the middle “The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum “on average,” it actually spends very little of its time there. […]

Continue Reading

How to Think About Price

Market, Price, Psychology, Risk

Tesla at $1,000 per share. Topglove, one of the largest glove manufacturers, is trading at MYR$17 per share, up 360% so far this year due to COVID19. Afterpay, Australia’s leading buy now pay later, has a $15 billion market capitalization after a 560% rally since March. What do they tell you? Will they keep going […]

Continue Reading

Hunting Ground

Circle of Competence, Environment, Opportunity Cost, Risk, Strategy

Hunting Groundhʌntɪŋ ɡraʊnd/nouna place likely to be a fruitful source of something desired or sought. Imagine if you’re going on a fishing trip, what do you need? You need a location, fishing rods, reels, lures, etc. That’s the plan. But a plan doesn’t equal success. You might catch some fish if you’re lucky, but you’re […]

Continue Reading

First, Kill Your Ideas

Decision Making, Investment Process, Randomness, Risk

“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman Investing is part art, part science. There’s no single formula for success as the future is uncertain, probabilistic, and constantly changing (our forecast changes the outcome). All of which rely on our […]

Continue Reading

How to Think About Price


Market, Price, Psychology, Risk

Tesla at $1,000 per share. Topglove, one of the largest glove manufacturers, is trading at MYR$17 per share, up 360% so far this year due to COVID19. Afterpay, Australia’s leading buy now pay later, has a $15 billion market capitalization after a 560% rally since March. What do they tell you? Will they keep going […]

June 28, 2020

Charlie Munger On The Problem of Economics, How He Thinks, and What Should Investors Do


Incentive, Mental Models, Psychology, Second Order Effect

Charlie Munger’s speech “Academic Economics: Strengths and Faults After Considering Interdisciplinary Needs” at Herb Kay Undergraduate Lecture in 2003 gives me insights into how he thinks and what investors should learn.  Fatal unconnectedness, leading to ‘man with a hammer syndrome,’ often causing overweighting what can be counted Munger’s first objection to economics is that it […]

June 1, 2020

Hunting Ground


Circle of Competence, Environment, Opportunity Cost, Risk, Strategy

Hunting Groundhʌntɪŋ ɡraʊnd/nouna place likely to be a fruitful source of something desired or sought. Imagine if you’re going on a fishing trip, what do you need? You need a location, fishing rods, reels, lures, etc. That’s the plan. But a plan doesn’t equal success. You might catch some fish if you’re lucky, but you’re […]

April 19, 2020