First, Kill Your Ideas


Decision Making, Investment Process, Randomness, Risk

“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman Investing is part art, part science. There’s no single formula for success as the future is uncertain, probabilistic, and constantly changing (our forecast changes the outcome). All of which rely on our […]

Books for 2019


Books, Decision Making, Expected Value, Luck, Probability

Thinking in Systems Systems are like Russian nesting dolls—a system that has its own subsystems is also part of a larger system which is part of another larger system. As an example, a supply chain consists of many different industries where within each industry, sit hundreds of companies. Each of these companies is further made […]

9 Ways to Improve Forecast


Decision Making, Expected Value, Investment Process, Probability

Philip Tetlock spent 30 years exploring what makes someone a superforecaster (not the ones you see on TV). In his book Superforecasting, he distills his work into several commandments on how we can improve our judgment without any complex algorithm.   1. Triage: Focus on questions where your hard work is likely to pay off […]