A Million Dollars Lesson


Investment Process, Luck, Market, Psychology, Risk, Strategy

In investing, knowing what not to do is more important than knowing what to do. But since we don’t have all the time in the world to make all the possible mistakes to figure out what not to do, the best way is to learn from other’s mistakes.  In What I Learned Losing A Million […]

Find Your Edge


Analysis, Circle of Competence, Contrarian, Independent thinking, Investment Process

In my previous post, I wrote that to achieve outperformance or above-average returns, your investment process has to be ‘unconventional’ compared to the majority. And that can only be achieved through originality, independent or contrarian thinking, and making connections from disparate information.  Bill Miller, the former Legg Mason portfolio manager, emphasizes the importance of making […]

9 Ways to Improve Forecast


Decision Making, Expected Value, Investment Process, Probability

Philip Tetlock spent 30 years exploring what makes someone a superforecaster (not the ones you see on TV). In his book Superforecasting, he distills his work into several commandments on how we can improve our judgment without any complex algorithm.   1. Triage: Focus on questions where your hard work is likely to pay off […]

15 Investing Lessons


Circle of Competence, Decision Making, Expected Value, Filter, Investment Process, Opportunity Cost, Portfolio, Probability, Psychology, Risk

1. Experience may not be a good teacher Most elderly who died in Hurricane Katrina dies not because of their health, but because of confidence and denial. They have survived several hurricanes over their lifetime, so they believe Hurricane Katrina is no exception. Experience can create a close attitude that prevents us from seeing things […]