Wanna Bet?

Decision Making, Investment Process, Luck, Probability, Psychology

Our intuition works like this:  Decision → Outcome (feedback) → Better Decision You burn your hand (outcome) after touching a hot stove (decision) or place your feet on the brake (decision) slows down the car (outcome), we use outcomes as feedback to change our actions and make better future decisions. But there’s a caveat.  In […]

A Million Dollars Lesson

Investment Process, Luck, Market, Psychology, Risk, Strategy

In investing, knowing what not to do is more important than knowing what to do. But since we don’t have all the time in the world to make all the possible mistakes to figure out what not to do, the best way is to learn from other’s mistakes.  In What I Learned Losing A Million […]

Books for 2019

Books, Decision Making, Expected Value, Luck, Probability

Thinking in Systems Systems are like Russian nesting dolls—a system that has its own subsystems is also part of a larger system which is part of another larger system. As an example, a supply chain consists of many different industries where within each industry, sit hundreds of companies. Each of these companies is further made […]