How to Think About Price


Market, Price, Psychology, Risk

Tesla at $1,000 per share. Topglove, one of the largest glove manufacturers, is trading at MYR$17 per share, up 360% so far this year due to COVID19. Afterpay, Australia’s leading buy now pay later, has a $15 billion market capitalization after a 560% rally since March. What do they tell you? Will they keep going […]

June 28, 2020

Charlie Munger On The Problem of Economics, How He Thinks, and What Should Investors Do


Incentive, Mental Models, Psychology, Second Order Effect

Charlie Munger’s speech “Academic Economics: Strengths and Faults After Considering Interdisciplinary Needs” at Herb Kay Undergraduate Lecture in 2003 gives me insights into how he thinks and what investors should learn.  Fatal unconnectedness, leading to ‘man with a hammer syndrome,’ often causing overweighting what can be counted Munger’s first objection to economics is that it […]

June 1, 2020

Wanna Bet?


Decision Making, Investment Process, Luck, Probability, Psychology

Our intuition works like this:  Decision → Outcome (feedback) → Better Decision You burn your hand (outcome) after touching a hot stove (decision) or place your feet on the brake (decision) slows down the car (outcome), we use outcomes as feedback to change our actions and make better future decisions. But there’s a caveat.  In […]

March 5, 2020

Best Books I Read Last Year


Books, Process, Psychology, Randomness, Second Order Effect

Books that should be read more than once. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder While Taleb’s previous two books—Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan—focused on overconfidence and underestimation of risk, Antifragile is the antidote on how we can reduce fragility and in the process, gain from disorder and randomness. Antifragile provides a view that […]

February 23, 2020