What is Value Investing?

Free Cash Flow, Get started, Process, Risk

What is value investing? It is to buy a business for less than what it’s worth. We can break this into three parts. Buy a business Buying a stock is the same as owning a fraction of the underlying business. If you buy a share of Apple (AAPL), you own the business that produces things […]

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Why Investors Blow Up (and How To Avoid That)

Decision Making, Margin of Safety, Psychology, Risk, Second Order Effect

Overshoot Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital described the market as a pendulum that rarely stays in the middle “The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum “on average,” it actually spends very little of its time there. […]

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How to Think About Price

Market, Price, Psychology, Risk

Tesla at $1,000 per share. Topglove, one of the largest glove manufacturers, is trading at MYR$17 per share, up 360% so far this year due to COVID19. Afterpay, Australia’s leading buy now pay later, has a $15 billion market capitalization after a 560% rally since March. What do they tell you? Will they keep going […]

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Hunting Ground

Circle of Competence, Environment, Opportunity Cost, Risk, Strategy

Hunting Groundhʌntɪŋ ɡraʊnd/nouna place likely to be a fruitful source of something desired or sought. Imagine if you’re going on a fishing trip, what do you need? You need a location, fishing rods, reels, lures, etc. That’s the plan. But a plan doesn’t equal success. You might catch some fish if you’re lucky, but you’re […]

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Hunting Ground


Circle of Competence, Environment, Opportunity Cost, Risk, Strategy

Hunting Groundhʌntɪŋ ɡraʊnd/nouna place likely to be a fruitful source of something desired or sought. Imagine if you’re going on a fishing trip, what do you need? You need a location, fishing rods, reels, lures, etc. That’s the plan. But a plan doesn’t equal success. You might catch some fish if you’re lucky, but you’re […]

6 Ways to Make Smarter Investment Decisions


Decision Making, Investment Process, Psychology

Here are a few psychological tools that can instantly help you to make better investment decisions. Distancing In 1985, Intel has a tough decision to make: expand its core memory chip business that is rapidly losing money due to heavy competition from Japanese counterparts or bet on their nascent but fast-growing microprocessor business. There was […]

Wanna Bet?


Decision Making, Investment Process, Luck, Probability, Psychology

Our intuition works like this:  Decision → Outcome (feedback) → Better Decision You burn your hand (outcome) after touching a hot stove (decision) or place your feet on the brake (decision) slows down the car (outcome), we use outcomes as feedback to change our actions and make better future decisions. But there’s a caveat.  In […]

Best Books I Read Last Year


Books, Process, Psychology, Randomness, Second Order Effect

Books that should be read more than once. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder While Taleb’s previous two books—Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan—focused on overconfidence and underestimation of risk, Antifragile is the antidote on how we can reduce fragility and in the process, gain from disorder and randomness. Antifragile provides a view that […]

21 Lessons in 2019


Decision Making, Independent thinking, Investment Process, Reflection

A few things I learned over the past year. 1. Process first, analysis second, margin of safety last A robust process can prevent a poor analysis but a good analysis can still create silly mistakes. Let’s say a stock is an excellent buy for 10 reasons. That’s a good analysis; your judgment comes from facts […]