Wanna Bet?


Decision Making, Investment Process, Luck, Probability, Psychology

Our intuition works like this:  Decision → Outcome (feedback) → Better Decision You burn your hand (outcome) after touching a hot stove (decision) or place your feet on the brake (decision) slows down the car (outcome), we use outcomes as feedback to change our actions and make better future decisions. But there’s a caveat.  In […]

March 5, 2020

First, Kill Your Ideas


Decision Making, Investment Process, Randomness, Risk

“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.” – Richard Feynman Investing is part art, part science. There’s no single formula for success as the future is uncertain, probabilistic, and constantly changing (our forecast changes the outcome). All of which rely on our […]

October 31, 2019